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dc.contributor.authorCruz-Aguilar, Pedro León
dc.contributor.authorMedina-Vásquez, Javier Enrique
dc.date2015-06-01
dc.identifierhttps://revistas.unilibre.edu.co/index.php/entramado/article/view/1195
dc.identifier10.18041/entramado.2015v11n1.21113
dc.descriptionThe purpose of this article is to reflect on how different methods for building future scenarios are selected, according to the nature of the scenarios (quantitative, qualitative or mixed) and the characteristics of the exercise being conducted (regional coverage, time horizon, number of scenarios, and sponsor). In total, the authors reviewed 2,603 abstracts of articles published in indexed journals over the period of 2003-2013, 1,009 of which were published in Futures, 1,169 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and 425 in Foresight; with the goal of selecting those articles where exercises about future scenarios were presented, and evaluating the frequency of use of the methods based on their nature and the characteristics of the exercise. The various combinations proposed are presented graphically to respond to the purpose of the research, which finds that the nature of the method has a great influence and that the characteristics have little or very little impact on the choice of methods.en-US
dc.descriptionEl propósito de este artículo es reflexionar sobre cómo son seleccionados los diferentes métodos para la construcción de los escenarios de futuro; de acuerdo con la naturaleza de estos (cuantitativa, cualitativa y mixta) y las características del ejercicio que se realiza (cobertura regional, horizonte de tiempo, número de escenarios y patrocinador). Se revisaron (2.603) abstract de artículos publicados en revistas indexadas durante el periodo comprendido entre 2003-2013; de los cuales (1.009) corresponden a la revista Futures (1.169), a la revista Technological Forecasting and Social Change y (425) a la revista Foresight; con el fin de seleccionar aquellos donde se presentaban ejercicios sobre escenarios de futuro y evaluar en estos la frecuencia del uso de los métodos de acuerdo con su naturaleza y las características del ejercicio. Se representaron gráficamente las diferentes combinaciones propuestas para dar respuesta al propósito dela investigación, hallándose que la naturaleza del método tiene una gran influencia y que las características ejercen una baja o muy baja influencia en la escogencia de los métodos.es-ES
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Librees-ES
dc.relationhttps://revistas.unilibre.edu.co/index.php/entramado/article/view/1195/925
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dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/*
dc.sourceEntramado; Vol 11 No 1 (2015): Entramado; 32-46en-US
dc.sourceEntramado; Vol. 11 Núm. 1 (2015): Entramado; 32-46es-ES
dc.sourceEntramado; v. 11 n. 1 (2015): Entramado; 32-46pt-BR
dc.source2539-0279
dc.source1900-3803
dc.subjectMétodoses-ES
dc.subjectEscenarioses-ES
dc.subjectNaturalezaes-ES
dc.subjectCaracterísticases-ES
dc.subjectSelecciónes-ES
dc.titleSelection of methods for building future scenariosen-US
dc.titleSelección de los métodos para la construcción de los escenarios de futuroes-ES
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia*
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.coarversionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.relation.ispartofjournalRevistas - Ciencias Sociales y Humanasspa


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